The Price of Progress: Land, Investment, and Risk in a Shifting Global Economy

Global | Ahead of World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings 2025 — As the World Bank and International Monetary Fund prepare for their 2025 Annual Meetings, land is surfacing as a quiet but powerful fault line in the global economy.

The 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will take place from 17-19 October in Washington, D.C. Among the topics for discussion are global financial stability, inclusive economic growth and climate change.

Whether viewed as an investment opportunity, a geopolitical lever, or a development asset, land is increasingly at the centre of economic risk — and opportunity.

But as capital moves in, questions are mounting: Who benefits? Who decides? And what happens when markets collide with the livelihoods and land rights of the most vulnerable?

Land as Global Capital

From carbon offset programs to large-scale agribusiness, land is becoming a frontier for global investment. According to the Land Matrix Initiative, more than 93 million hectares of land have been acquired through large-scale land deals since 2000 — mostly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

Private equity, sovereign wealth funds, and multinational corporations are investing in land for food production, mining, and increasingly, “green” energy. Yet local communities are often sidelined, and customary rights ignored.

The Risk of Financialisation

Experts warn that the financialisation of land — treating it as a tradable commodity disconnected from local social or ecological realities — is creating bubbles, displacing people, and fuelling unrest.

In Ethiopia, land leases for export-oriented farming have disrupted local food systems. In Cambodia and Mozambique, industrial land deals have sparked resistance from farmers with no legal title, but deep ancestral roots.

“Land grabs don’t just threaten livelihoods — they destabilise entire economies,” says Dr. Anika Shah, a senior economist with the Global Policy Forum. “They’re a hidden debt.”

Investment Without Safeguards

As more climate finance and carbon trading mechanisms enter land markets, calls for responsible investment are growing louder. International guidelines exist — such as the FAO’s Voluntary Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of Tenure (VGGT) — but enforcement remains weak.

Advocates are pushing for binding due diligence laws and stronger accountability in World Bank lending and private sector partnerships.

The Cost of Displacement

Behind balance sheets and GDP targets are real consequences: rural displacement, urban land speculation, and intensified inequality. In fragile economies, land insecurity can undermine social cohesion and long-term growth.

At the upcoming Annual Meetings, civil society organizations plan to spotlight the issue, calling for land justice to be treated not just as a human rights concern — but as an economic imperative.

Toward Rights-Based Investment

Some multilateral lenders are exploring new frameworks for land-inclusive development finance — linking investment to transparent land registries, Indigenous land recognition, and gender equity.

“The global economy cannot afford to treat land as a blind spot,” says Nikhil Patel, Director of Sustainable Finance at Oxfam. “It must be integrated into risk assessments, impact measurement, and the language of growth.”

As the world recalibrates its development models amid inflation, inequality, and ecological strain, land may well be the most valuable — and volatile — asset of all.